(Caption: Deliberately captured Tokyo Ginkgo with the Ginkgo Camera GR IV. Image source: Ernest Chiang.)

“Sometimes you got to slow down to go fast.”

This phrase kept echoing in my mind throughout 2025. While every industry chases the efficiency gains promised by AI, and anxiety about the future and artificial intelligence pervades, I kept returning to this note in my journal: “True progress often comes from deliberate pauses and deep thinking.”

The hard part isn’t stopping or slowing down—it’s being deliberate.

Deliberate practice, deliberate thinking, deliberate connection, deliberate verification.

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(Illustration: At AWS re:Invent 2025 CEO Keynote in Las Vegas, listening to Sony CDO’s eight-minute speech on Technology to “Create” and “Deliver” KANDO. Image source: Sony.)

✳️ tl;dr

• Ever since listening to Sony CDO’s eight-minute speech on Technology to "Create" and "Deliver" KANDO at AWS re:Invent 2025 CEO Keynote in Las Vegas two weeks ago, I was not only impressed by AWS’s nuanced breakdown of AI, but deeply admired how this established company Sony integrates Amazon Bedrock into its own KANDO culture and execution.¹²
• Sony acquired controlling interest (80% stake) in Peanuts Holdings for $460 million, combined with its initial $185 million investment in 2018, totaling $645 million over seven years. The transaction is expected to generate revaluation gains on equity as operating income.³
• This is a case of balancing financial discipline with strategic vision. Sony chose staged investment rather than outright acquisition, validating the business model before increasing investment, reducing risk while building partnerships.³
• Peanuts generates $2.5 billion in annual retail sales, with holiday products contributing $500 million. Compared to Sony’s $185 million investment in 2018, the brand demonstrates strong cash flow generation capacity and stable licensing revenue.⁴

• Sony’s entertainment business revenue grew from 26% in fiscal 2012 to 60% in fiscal 2023, with content IP investment accounting for 57% of strategic investments (1.5 trillion yen). This shows the company’s successful transformation into a content-driven entertainment group.⁵
• Sony CEO Yoshida and CFO Totoki emphasize “Creation Shift” and “Creative Entertainment Vision.” Totoki stated: “I am obsessed with growth. When growth stagnates, you fall into a negative spiral.”⁶⁵
• Sony’s recent IP investments include 10% stake in Kadokawa (50 billion yen), 2.5% stake in Bandai Namco (68 billion yen), and acquisition of Crunchyroll. These investments build an anime and gaming IP ecosystem.⁷⁸
• Compared to studio acquisitions (Bungie, Firewalk underperformed), direct IP investment offers more controllable risk. IP can be monetized across multiple platforms without being constrained by single-studio operational risks.⁹
• Apple TV+ exclusive streaming agreement through 2030 ensures long-term revenue visibility. Platforms are willing to pay premium for classic IP because it attracts multi-generational audiences and builds cultural resonance, reducing churn.¹⁰
• Sony plans to spin off part of its financial services business in 2025 to focus on entertainment and content creation. This demonstrates management’s determination to simplify the business portfolio and improve capital allocation efficiency.⁵
• WildBrain received $460 million from the sale, to be used for debt repayment and investment in Strawberry Shortcake, Teletubbies, and digital content networks. For WildBrain, this represents portfolio optimization, focusing on core assets.³
• (Speculation) Sony may increase Peanuts brand value by 50-100% within 5-10 years through cross-media integration (gaming, music, film) and expansion into new markets (Asia, Latin America).
• The Schulz family retains a 20% stake to ensure brand heritage and quality control. This equity structure balances commercial interests with cultural legacy protection, crucial for long-term brand value.³

• Peanuts’ cultural significance in Japan (inspiring Hello Kitty’s creation) provides Sony with unique advantages. Sony may strengthen Asian market expansion, as two-thirds of revenue already comes from outside the U.S.¹¹⁴
• This case demonstrates how strategic IP acquisition builds lasting competitive advantage rather than chasing short-term trends. Peanuts’ 75-year history proves the enduring value and cross-generational appeal of classic IP.⁴

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(Illustration: Frozen soap bubble. Image source: Photo by Jill Warvel on Unsplash.)

✳️ tl;dr

• Howard Marks believes AI shows signs of “irrational exuberance,” but bubbles can usually only be identified in retrospect, and current valuations, while high, have not yet reached crazy levels ¹
• “One of the most interesting aspects of bubbles is their regularity, not in terms of timing, but rather the progression they follow. Something new and seemingly revolutionary appears and worms its way into people’s minds. It captures their imagination, and the excitement is overwhelming. The early participants enjoy huge gains. Those who merely look on feel incredible envy and regret and – motivated by the fear of continuing to miss out – pile in.”

• AI exhibits bubble characteristics: revolutionary technology, FOMO-driven speculation, extremely high valuations, but “this time is different” may hold true with a 20% probability. (Everyone wants to predict the future but also hedge their bets?)
• Circular deals raise concerns: Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which uses that money to purchase Nvidia chips, with Goldman Sachs estimating 15% of Nvidia’s sales come from such transactions
• Data center investment scale is staggering: JPMorgan estimates total AI infrastructure buildout costs at approximately $5 trillion, with spending approaching $500 billion next year
• Debt financing risks escalate: Oracle, Meta, and Alphabet issue 30-year bonds to finance AI investments, with yields exceeding US Treasuries by only 100 basis points or less
• Warren Buffett reminds us: automobiles were the most important invention of the first half of the 20th century, but only 3 out of 2,000 car companies survived, proving that technological importance doesn’t guarantee investor profits
• AWS Hero Ernest recommends that technical decision-makers establish a multi-vendor strategy, avoid sole dependence on Nvidia, and evaluate alternatives such as AWS Trainium and Google TPU for cost control and supply chain resilience

• AI chips have an actual useful life of only 1-3 years, yet companies use 5-6 year depreciation schedules, with Michael Burry accusing tech giants of inflating earnings ²
• Nvidia shifted from a 2-year to an annual product cycle, with Jensen Huang joking: “Once Blackwell starts shipping, you couldn’t give Hoppers away”
• Anthropic derives 80% of revenue from enterprise customers, with B2B models showing more promise due to higher transaction values, suggesting product strategy should prioritize enterprise markets ³
• OpenAI expects to continue massive losses until 2028, with HSBC estimating it won’t be profitable by 2030, requiring an additional $207 billion in funding ⁴
• Google TPU emerges as Nvidia’s strongest competitor, with 7th generation Ironwood offering 2x power efficiency improvement and 1.4x Nvidia’s cost-effectiveness, targeting 10% market share by 2027 ⁵

• SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) are used for data center financing, hiding off-balance-sheet debt, raising concerns similar to the Enron model
• WEF predicts AI will displace 85 million jobs by 2030 but create 97 million new ones, though 77% of new jobs require master’s degrees, necessitating fundamental HR strategy adjustments ⁶
• 77,999 jobs have already been lost to AI in 2025, averaging 491 people unemployed daily, with Microsoft reporting 30% of code written by AI while 40% of layoffs target engineers ⁷
• Historical analogy: The AI bubble resembles the 1860s railroad boom and 1920s aviation bubble, both being “inflection bubbles” that accelerated technology adoption at investors’ expense ¹
• Current AI giants average a P/E ratio of about 34, lower than the dot-com bubble’s 59, but Shiller CAPE reaches 40.40, approaching dot-com bubble levels ⁸

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(Caption: Ricoh GR IV, the latest chapter of the street photography god machine.)

Oh oh oh! The “Ginkgo Viewing Set” that I’ve been waiting for two and a half months has finally leisurely left the warehouse! These two and a half months were too long, so long that I felt I needed Ginkgo to supplement my brain power.

• Ricoh released GR IV on 2025-08-20,
• I rushed to B&H to pre-order one (and related accessories) as soon as possible on 2025-08-21,
• Waiting and hoping, waiting and waiting, I received two Backorder Status updates in between.
• In mid-October, I couldn’t help but ask customer service if there was an estimated delivery date, because I really wanted to take the GR IV on my upcoming business trips and street sweeping.
• Luckily, I received the Order Shipped notification on 2025-10-31,
• But encountering Double 11 and African Swine Fever, the entire customs was jammed,
• It wasn’t until 2025-11-09 that I received the import duty and tax notification. Fortunately, I received the box immediately after payment, and I can happily unbox it.

My last Ricoh was the R3 from 2005 (it even lacked a G!), and in a blink of an eye, it’s been twenty years. This time, I even bought the camera from B&H. Is it true love or destiny? Am I really destined with these two letters? Although the Ginkgo camera (plus batteries, flash, and other accessories) was stuck in customs for quite a few days, and for the first time I didn’t receive any EZ WAY notification (maybe because I manually filled out the paper appointment letter first?), I finally got it before Thanksgiving, giving me time to learn how to set it up (play with it?!) before my business trip.

Today, GR IV has finally arrived. Used some other bricks to exchange for these bricks in front of me. Tomorrow I’ll tell the kids this is also a type of Minecraft?

Okay, okay, no more chatting, let’s hurry up and unbox this year’s “Unbearable Lightness of Being Focused”. (At least compared to last year’s “Unbearable Lightness of Being Focused”, it is really light!)

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(Illustration: Screenshot of AWS Health Dashboard at 2025-10-20 12:51 PDT. Image source: Ernest.)

✳️ tl;dr

• The following content is from an official AWS report ¹, segmented and highlighted by AWS Community Hero Ernest ² from the perspective of a developer and technical manager, aiming to stay close to the facts and conduct reasoning and extended learning based on these facts.
• Through studying this report, we hope that both parties (AWS and us as AWS customers) can accumulate experience and continue to improve together, whether in the cloud or on-premises.
• Unless otherwise specified, all times below are in Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) from AWS Seattle headquarters on the West Coast.
• This note will begin with a knowledge graph, followed by a breakdown of the original official report content, divided into four sections: Amazon DynamoDB, Amazon EC2, Network Load Balancer (NLB), Other AWS Services
• If you have the budget to adjust your architecture for cross-region high availability but don’t have enough time for major architectural changes, it is recommended to take a look at AWS services with “global” in their name. For example, “Amazon DynamoDB Global Tables” from the same DynamoDB family was almost unaffected during this incident.

• We wanted to provide you with some additional information about the service disruption that occurred
  • in the N. Virginia (us-east-1) Region ³
  • on October 19 and 20, 2025.
  • While the event started at 11:48 PM PDT on October 19 (Taipei Timezone UTC+8, 2025-10-20 14:48)
  • and ended at 2:20 PM PDT on October 20 (Taipei Timezone UTC+8, 2025-10-21 05:20),
  • there were three distinct periods of impact to customer applications.
    • First, between 11:48 PM on October 19 and 2:40 AM on October 20, Amazon DynamoDB experienced increased API error rates in the N. Virginia (us-east-1) Region.
    • Second, between 5:30 AM and 2:09 PM on October 20, Network Load Balancer (NLB) experienced increased connection errors for some load balancers in the N. Virginia (us-east-1) Region.
      • This was caused by health check failures in the NLB fleet, which resulted in increased connection errors on some NLBs.
    • Third, between 2:25 AM and 10:36 AM on October 20, new EC2 instance launches failed and, while instance launches began to succeed from 10:37 AM, some newly launched instances experienced connectivity issues which were resolved by 1:50 PM.

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(Hand-drawn by Ernest Chiang. You might also be interested in his Ernest PKM workflow.)

1️⃣ Introduction: Making Zettelkasten Learnable and Replicable

In 2017, German scholar Sönke Ahrens published a book that transformed the knowledge management field: How to Take Smart Notes. ¹

This book accomplished something important: systematizing, proceduralizing, and making actionable Niklas Luhmann's Zettelkasten method.

Before Ahrens, Zettelkasten was more like a “legend”—we knew Luhmann wrote 70 books using this method, but weren’t quite clear how ordinary people could replicate this system. Luhmann’s own 1981 paper “Communicating with Slip Boxes” was more philosophical reflection than operational manual. (I personally prefer reflection, but many friends have been asking about methods, so I compiled this note.)

“Writing is not what happens after thinking.
Writing is the medium of thinking."

— Sönke Ahrens, How to Take Smart Notes (2017)

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(Hand-drawn by Ernest Chiang. You might also be interested in his Ernest PKM workflow.)

1️⃣ Introduction: A Sociologist and His Thinking Machine

Niklas Luhmann (1927–1998) was a German sociologist renowned for his systems theory. During his academic career, he achieved astonishing productivity: 70 books and over 400 scholarly articles.

But even more remarkable, he attributed all of this to what seemed like a simple tool: the Zettelkasten (slip box).

• This was not an ordinary note-taking system.
  • Luhmann began building this system in the 1950s, eventually accumulating over 90,000 index cards.
• He called this system his communication partner
  • An external brain capable of dialoguing with him, facilitating thinking, and even “surprising” himself. ¹
  • Doesn’t this sound like a manual, century-old version of an AI Agent or knowledge assistant?!

In his famous 1981 paper “Communicating with Slip Boxes” (Kommunikation mit Zettelkästen), Luhmann described in detail how this system worked. But interestingly, much of the modern understanding of the Zettelkasten method is actually mixed with interpretations and adaptations by later scholars.

This note explores the original method that Luhmann himself actually used.

“Without writing, one cannot think;
at least not in a sophisticated, connectable manner.”

— Niklas Luhmann, Kommunikation mit Zettelkästen (1981)¹

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(Illustration: KKR HQ locates at 30 hudson yards in New York. Image source: Photo by Illya Goloborodko.)

✳️ tl;dr

• News tracking 2024-10-30 ¹ → 2025-07-30 ²
• KKR is no stranger to the tech industry, having acquired an 80% stake in Philips’ semiconductor division in 2006, which was later renamed NXP Semiconductors. This was a client Ernest once served, leaving a particularly deep impression.

• 【2024-10-30】KKR and Energy Capital Partners announced a $50 billion strategic partnership focused on accelerating data center, power generation, and transmission infrastructure development to support global AI and cloud computing expansion ¹
• The partnership combines over 8GW of existing data center pipeline and 100GW of operating and development-ready power generation capacity, with KKR owning over 100 data center facilities worldwide ¹
• ECP invests in clean energy asset base, owning and operating over 83GW of power generation capacity in the U.S. market, spanning five asset classes including power generation, renewables, and storage ¹
• The partnership aims to collaborate with utilities, power producers, and data center developers to rapidly and responsibly develop large data center campuses for hyperscalers ¹
• Context: BlackRock launched a $30 billion AI infrastructure fund in the same month, backed by Microsoft and Nvidia, demonstrating capital’s rush into AI infrastructure ¹

• 【2025-07-30】First investment lands: 190MW hyperscale data center campus in Bosque County, Texas, marking 9 months from strategic announcement to first project announcement ²
• Innovative co-location model: Data center adjacent to Calpine’s Thad Hill Energy Center natural gas power plant, representing the first such dedicated power agreement with a hyperscaler ²
• Constructed through a joint venture between CyrusOne and ECP, expected to be operational in Q4 2026, with total investment approaching $4 billion, initial IT capacity of 144MW, spanning over 700,000 square feet ²
• Behind-the-Meter model: Calpine provides 190MW of dedicated power, which can be redirected to support system reliability and local demand during ERCOT grid emergencies ²

• AI-driven power demand: Goldman Sachs predicts global data center power demand will grow 165% by 2030 compared to 2023, with AI data center power density surging from traditional 5-10kW/rack to 50-200kW/rack ³⁴
• Grid bottleneck severity: New data center grid connection delays have reached 5 years, while Behind-the-Meter natural gas generation can be deployed within 18-24 months, becoming a pragmatic choice ⁵
• Texas regulatory environment: SB6 new legislation (signed June 2025) requires large loads over 75MW to bear grid costs, accept emergency curtailment, and install ERCOT-controlled “kill switches” ⁶⁷
• Private equity continues to double down: 2024 data center investment reached $108 billion (triple that of 2023), with KKR's 2021 acquisition of CyrusOne for $15 billion laying the foundation for this partnership ⁸⁹

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(Illustration: Aligned Data Centers. Image source: Aligned Data Centers.)

✳️ tl;dr

• AIP, MGX, and GIP formed a consortium to acquire Aligned Data Centers for $40 billion ¹²
• This marks AIP’s (AI Infrastructure Partnership) first investment since its establishment

• AIP was founded by BlackRock, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and MGX in September 2024 ³
• AIP targets mobilizing $30 billion in equity capital, with potential to reach $100 billion including debt financing
• Aligned owns 50 campuses with over 5 GW of operational and planned capacity across key digital hubs in the US and Latin America

• The hyperscale data center market is projected to reach $167.3 billion in 2025
• Growing at a 23.58% CAGR to $602.4 billion by 2030 ⁴
• Global data center electricity consumption is expected to double from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh in 2030, accounting for 3% of global electricity usage ⁵
• Aligned holds over 50 patented cooling technologies, including air, liquid, and hybrid cooling systems designed specifically for high-density AI workloads ¹⁶

• NVIDIA’s latest GB200 chip requires power density up to 120 kilowatts per rack, making liquid cooling essential for racks above 20 kilowatts ⁷⁸
• Kuwait Investment Authority and Singapore’s Temasek serve as anchor investors in AIP, demonstrating sovereign wealth funds’ long-term commitment to AI infrastructure ²³
• Notably, Macquarie Asset Management first invested in Aligned in 2018, expanding it from 2 facilities to 50 campuses over 7 years, achieving an exit valuation of approximately $40 billion ⁹¹⁰

• Major tech companies are expected to invest $400 billion in AI infrastructure in 2025, with OpenAI’s Stargate initiative alone reaching $500 billion ²¹¹
• US data center power demand is projected to double from 35 GW in 2024 to 78 GW by 2035, with average hourly electricity consumption tripling ¹²

• For you as a manager: Macquarie entered investments (in multiple data center companies) in 2018 and exited 7 years later. As we approach 2026, have you activated your radar to identify targets for the next 3-5 years?

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(Photo by Ray Hennessy on Unsplash)

✳️ tl;dr

• Meta completed nearly $300 billion in financing through SPV structure
• Building the Hyperion data center in Louisiana, setting a record for the largest private equity transaction in history ¹
• Hyperion data center covers 4 million square feet,
• When fully operational, it will consume 5 gigawatts of electricity, equivalent to the power consumption of 4 million American households

• Meta retains only 20% equity yet maintains full operational control,
• This “control without consolidation” accounting technique keeps $270 billion in debt off the balance sheet ²
• Equity accounts for only 8.5% of total financing ($2.5 billion/$29.5 billion)
• Insurance companies invest heavily in such projects through private credit,
• But face asset-liability mismatch risks and may be forced to liquidate investments during economic downturns ³
• Historical lesson: In the 1990s, telecom companies laid 80 million miles of fiber optic cables,
• Four years after the bubble burst, 85%-95% remained unused, earning the nickname “dark fiber” ⁴
• Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft committed to a record $320 billion in capital expenditure this year, mostly for AI infrastructure, yet Meta’s 10-K admits: “there can be no assurance that the usage of AI will enhance our products or services” ⁵

• Power infrastructure becomes one of the bottlenecks
• Grid Strategies estimates data centers will need an additional 60 gigawatts of electricity by 2030, equivalent to Italy’s national peak demand ⁶
• Cooling technology is also crucial: from air cooling to direct liquid cooling to immersion cooling, affecting long-term operating costs ⁷

• Morgan Stanley serves as the exclusive underwriter, while also providing financing advisory for multiple similar projects ¹
• Bonds are issued in 144A format private placement, with a spread of 225 basis points above Treasury bonds ¹

• What can technology managers do? (1) Quantify the actual ROI timeline for AI investments (2) Assess power supply chain risks (3) Maintain appropriate financial leverage ratios

^{8 9}

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